Guide to forecasting pupil numbers in school-place planning
Effective pupil-place planning is a fundamental element of the local authority's role as strategic commissioner of good school places. It is underpinned by strong use of relevant data drawn from a wide variety of sources.
Who this guide is for
This guide is primarily for local authority commissioners involved in planning and organising school places, particularly those with direct responsibility for producing pupil forecasts. It will help you to:
- prepare accurate forecasts of pupil numbers
- validate your calculations.
It will also help others in your authority understand the basis of calculations and the range of issues addressed in producing pupil forecasts — people involved in asset management and infrastructure investment around children's services, for example.
External suppliers such as building contractors and organisations involved in Building Schools for the Future or Primary Capital Programme bids may also find the guide useful.
What this guide is for
The purpose of this guide is to suggest ways of improving the accuracy of pupil forecasts and give examples of good practice. This is because research shows that:
- local authorities use a wide variety of methods to forecast pupil numbers
- no single method has consistently provided accurate results.
What the guide covers
This guide:
- outlines why you need to produce forecasts
- sets out some general principles that apply to any forecasting exercise
- provides guidance on making your projections
- offers advice on taking account of housing developments
- identifies data sources and advises on how to use them
- considers the use of historical data.
This guide focuses on the production of authority-wide forecasts, although the same principles apply for pupil projections at all levels. If any of the terms are unfamiliar to you, take a look at the glossary.
You can also read an overview of the research on which this guide is based.
A hard copy of the guide is also available.
Last updated: 12 February 2010
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