Pupil Projection Guide
The Pupil Projection Guide is designed to help local authorities make accurate projections of pupil numbers for individual schools on a rolling three-year basis.
You may download a word version of the text of the guide here (this will not include the Excel spread sheets.)
The guide is divided into the following sections:
- Introduction
Explains:
- why this guide has been written now
- who should read the guide
- how the guide may help you
- how the guide should be used
- how local projections complement DfES projections
- who the authors of the guide are
- how accurate current methods are
- the good practice that underpins the guide
- Understanding the context for your
projections
A checklist to help you to identify:
- the impact of trends in your school age population
- the impact of parental preferences in your area
- aspects of the school system in your area warranting particular attention
- what you can learn from accuracy tests and data
validation results
- An overview of the process for
projecting pupil numbers
Showing how the process can be split into three phases in order to:
- increase pupil numbers for new reception classes
- adjust existing pupil cohort numbers to take account of "ins" and "outs" from the school population
- decrease pupil numbers to take account of year-11 pupils who leave school each year.
- Projecting pupil numbers at
local authority level
Gives an overview of how the pupil projection process works and detailed guidance on how to:
- project reception pupil numbers
- project year 1 to year 11 numbers inc. pupil turnover
- project the impact of transfer years on pupil rolls
- validate the projections
- understand the local authority context
- determine a range of projections
- account for staggered reception start dates
- project nursery classes
- project sixth forms
- use population data
- investigate cross boundary flows
- consider housing developments
- reflect other developments in projections
- Projecting pupil numbers for
individual schools
Provides an overview of the process for projecting pupil numbers for individual schools and gives detailed advice on:
- testing the accuracy of previous projections
- producing the first cut school level projections
- projecting pupil numbers for entry classes
- projecting pupil numbers in other year groups
- validating and adjusting the school projections
- sharing the initial projections with schools
- report the final projections clearly to schools
- Cross-cutting
issues
Cross-cutting issues affect how to tailor the pupil projection method to fit local circumstances. It includes advice on:
-
what historic data to use
-
what level the initial projections should be at, i.e. the authority as a whole, sub areas or individual schools
-
schools warranting an individual or adjusted projection methodology because of special factors affecting demand for their places
-
- Case
studies
These case studies give detailed accounts of how three different local authorities approach the task of projecting pupil numbers. The three authorities are:
- 7.1 Redcar and Cleveland
- 7.2 North Somerset Council
- 7.3 Cornwall County Council
- A guide to obtaining further
information
Provides you with links to websites that contain useful information that may help you make or validate your projections.
- A glossary of
terms
Explains and defines technical terms
